Ben Skowronek Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Ben Skowronek

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Ben Skowronek Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+334/-630).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +437 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +334.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Ben Skowronek to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (8.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.9% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Completion% in football (67.8%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (67.8%).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered the most passing touchdowns in the NFL to WRs: 1.53 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.46 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
Ben Skowronek's 13.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the worst in football: 23rd percentile for WRs.
Ben Skowronek grades out in the 1st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.