Ben Skowronek Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Ben Skowronek

NFL · Player Props

Ben Skowronek

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Ben Skowronek Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+323/-599).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -583 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -599.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Ben Skowronek to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (13.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.1% in games he has played).
Ben Skowronek has accrued significantly more air yards this season (30.0 per game) than he did last season (18.0 per game).
Ben Skowronek's 26.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 11.1.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks grade out as the worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Ben Skowronek has not caught any TDs this year.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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