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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a focus on passing than their typical approach.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buccaneers to pass on 62.5% of their downs: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.4% red zone pass rate.

The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (40.5 per game) this year.

Baker Mayfield's 70.2% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects an impressive growth in his throwing accuracy over last year's 63.6% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the projections to call just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week.

The Buccaneers have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.8 plays per game.

The Baltimore Ravens linebackers project as the 10th-best group of LBs in the league this year in regard to pass rush.

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