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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buccaneers to pass on 62.1% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.4% red zone pass rate.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

This week, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by the predictive model to have the 9th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.5.

The New Orleans Saints defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (41.4 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.0 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.

The 5th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Buccaneers this year (a measly 53.2 per game on average).

This year, the stout Saints defense has yielded a paltry 0.20 passing TDs per game to opposing teams: the smallest rate in the league.

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