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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+108/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buccaneers to pass on 59.3% of their plays: the 10th-greatest rate among all teams this week.

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 55.4% red zone pass rate.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (37.0 per game) since the start of last season.

Baker Mayfield's passing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 63.6% to 73.3%.

Baker Mayfield has been among the top TD passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 1.70 per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to run the 10th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a measly 55.6 per game on average).

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in the league against the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (68.7% Adjusted Completion%).

When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's group of safeties has been phenomenal since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in football.

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