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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-174/+132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -168 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -174.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football (62.0% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.

The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower run volume.

Baker Mayfield has attempted 34.0 throws per game this year, checking in at the 78th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a 3-point favorite this week.

The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Commanders, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (just 28.9 per game) this year.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Commanders defense this year (68.5% Adjusted Completion%).

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Washington's unit has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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