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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Tampa Bay offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Baker Mayfield's 70.5% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a remarkable growth in his throwing precision over last season's 63.6% figure.

Baker Mayfield has been among the leading TD throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 2.27 per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

This year, the porous Panthers defense has yielded a massive 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-largest rate in football.

The Panthers defense has been torched for the 3rd-most passing TDs in the NFL: 1.80 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the 6th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The leading projections forecast Baker Mayfield to attempt 33.1 passes in this contest, on balance: the 8th-fewest among all QBs.

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 32.9 per game) this year.

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