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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.6% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buccaneers.

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may suffer.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

Baker Mayfield's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 63.6% to 69.6%.

Baker Mayfield has been among the top touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 2.15 per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This year, the fierce Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered a meager 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 10th-smallest rate in the NFL.

The Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered the 9th-fewest passing TDs in the NFL: 1.15 per game this year.

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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