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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.1% red zone pass rate.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

Baker Mayfield's throwing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 63.6% to 71.4%.

With a stellar ratio of 2.18 per game (95th percentile), Baker Mayfield places among the leading TD passers in the league this year.

This year, the anemic Panthers defense has conceded a whopping 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.8% of their plays: the 11th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the model to run just 63.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects Baker Mayfield to attempt 33.3 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 10th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

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