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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

New York Giants vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.2% pass rate.

The Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Baker Mayfield's 70.5% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a material gain in his throwing accuracy over last season's 63.6% figure.

With an outstanding rate of 2.40 per game (98th percentile), Baker Mayfield has been as one of the leading TD throwers in football this year.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest level in football against the Giants defense this year (76.6% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see only 126.8 plays on offense run: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.

The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

In this contest, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by the projections to total the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 31.8.

Opposing offenses have averaged 28.7 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: fewest in football.

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