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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -122.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league in the red zone (60.7% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In this game, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by the model to have the 5th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.5.

Baker Mayfield's 71.6% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies an impressive progression in his throwing precision over last year's 63.6% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call just 62.2 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

This year, the stout San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded a meager 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.

When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's LB corps has been terrific this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

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