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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+180/-225).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -225.
  • The Tampa Bay O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • The Atlanta Falcons defense has been gouged for the 5th-most passing touchdowns in football: 1.67 per game this year.

  • The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 6.0% more towards the run game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
  • The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.3% of their chances: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the model to run only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (just 55.6 per game on average).

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