Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+180/-225).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -225.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tampa Bay O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has been gouged for the 5th-most passing touchdowns in football: 1.67 per game this year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 6.0% more towards the run game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.3% of their chances: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the model to run only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (just 55.6 per game on average).

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