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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+215/-270).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -270.
  • The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
  • The Buccaneers have been the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 68.0% red zone pass rate.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.5 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
  • Baker Mayfield has attempted just 15.4 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 5th percentile among quarterbacks.
  • Baker Mayfield has been among the bottom touchdown passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 0.93 per game while grading out in the 21st percentile.
  • Since the start of last season, the fierce New Orleans Saints defense has given up a paltry 63.6% Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the smallest rate in the NFL.
  • The Saints defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest passing TDs in the league: 0.95 per game since the start of last season.

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