Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+215/-270).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -270.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Buccaneers have been the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 68.0% red zone pass rate.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Baker Mayfield has attempted just 15.4 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 5th percentile among quarterbacks.
Baker Mayfield has been among the bottom touchdown passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 0.93 per game while grading out in the 21st percentile.
Since the start of last season, the fierce New Orleans Saints defense has given up a paltry 63.6% Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the smallest rate in the NFL.
The Saints defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest passing TDs in the league: 0.95 per game since the start of last season.

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