Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 26, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +164 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The model projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 63.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and their pass/run mix to lean 8.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
Baker Mayfield has attempted just 14.7 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 5th percentile among quarterbacks.
Baker Mayfield has been among the bottom TD passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 0.93 per game while ranking in the 16th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in football vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (67.1%).

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