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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 20

Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 61.5% red zone pass rate.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Baker Mayfield has been among the leading TD passers in football this year, averaging a remarkable 1.72 per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.

This year, the anemic Detroit Lions defense has conceded a whopping 1.67 passing TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks: the biggest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in football vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year (66.6% Adjusted Completion%).

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