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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (59.7% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Buccaneers.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 132.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.

With an excellent ratio of 1.73 per game (83rd percentile), Baker Mayfield ranks among the leading touchdown passers in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in football against the New Orleans Saints defense this year (63.0% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the strong Saints defense has conceded a measly 1.20 passing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 8th-best rate in football.

As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, New Orleans's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.

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