Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line suggests a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.
This year, the porous Green Bay Packers defense has given up a staggering 71.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 10th-highest rate in football.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are anticipated by the model to run only 63.4 total plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
In this week's contest, Baker Mayfield is projected by the predictive model to wind up with the 8th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 33.0.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
With a bad 61.3% Adjusted Completion% (14th percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield rates as one of the least accurate passers in football.
This year, the strong Green Bay Packers defense has conceded a mere 1.08 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 2nd-best rate in football.

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