Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this contest, Baker Mayfield is predicted by the projection model to average the 10th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.5.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive scheme to tilt 4.3% more towards the rushing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
Opposing teams have played at the 10th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Buccaneers defense this year, averaging 28.03 seconds per play.
This year, the tough Colts defense has yielded a puny 1.00 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-best rate in football.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties rank as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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