Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The Buccaneers rank as the most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 70.7% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Baker Mayfield has attempted a measly 11.2 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 6th percentile among QBs.
Baker Mayfield has been among the worst TD passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 0.83 per game while checking in at the 14th percentile.
The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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