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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-170).

  • The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
  • The Buccaneers rank as the most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 70.7% red zone pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • Baker Mayfield has attempted a measly 11.2 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 6th percentile among QBs.
  • Baker Mayfield has been among the worst TD passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 0.83 per game while checking in at the 14th percentile.
  • The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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