Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Carolina Panthers

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+164/-215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +172 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +164.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the 4th-most passing TDs in the league: 1.85 per game since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-worst group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.5 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Baker Mayfield's throwing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 61.9% to 50.9%.