Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Carolina Panthers

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+196/-260).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -260 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -260.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.
The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 30.3 passes this week, on average: the 5th-least of all QBs.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Baker Mayfield's throwing accuracy has worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 61.9% to 51.1%.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the NFL against the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season (65.2%).

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