Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.0 (-250/+188).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -238 before it was bet up to 1.0 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams will be starting backup quarterback Baker Mayfield in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The Rams have been the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.
Baker Mayfield's throwing precision has been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 61.9% to 66.0%.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers grade out as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.3 plays per game.
Baker Mayfield has attempted a measly 9.6 passes per game this year, ranking in the 6th percentile among QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

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