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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 18

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.0 (-250/+188).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -238 before it was bet up to 1.0 @ -250.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Los Angeles Rams will be starting backup quarterback Baker Mayfield in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Rams are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

The Rams have been the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.

Baker Mayfield's throwing precision has been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 61.9% to 66.0%.

The Seattle Seahawks linebackers grade out as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Rams have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.3 plays per game.

Baker Mayfield has attempted a measly 9.6 passes per game this year, ranking in the 6th percentile among QBs.

Opposing teams have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 9th-least in the league.

The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

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