Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Los Angeles Chargers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -240 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams will be starting backup QB Baker Mayfield in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Rams have been the 7th-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 61.3% red zone pass rate.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Baker Mayfield's throwing precision has been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 61.9% to 67.7%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
Baker Mayfield has attempted just 8.6 passes per game this year, ranking in the 6th percentile among quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

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