Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-225/+172).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams will be forced to start backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Rams are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 10th-most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 33.8 passes in this week's game, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

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