Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-235/+175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -210 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -235.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams will be forced to utilize backup QB Baker Mayfield this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The Rams have been the 6th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.7% red zone pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest clip in the league versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year (74.5%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 31.7 passes this week, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in football.

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