Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Carolina Panthers

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-128/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are an enormous 13-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in football versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year (73.7%).

Favors Under

The Panthers have been the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 56.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 7th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

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