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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 130.0 total plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.

Baker Mayfield's 20.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season illustrates a substantial improvement in his running proficiency over last season's 10.0 figure.

Baker Mayfield's ground efficiency has gotten better this season, accumulating 6.55 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.16 rate last season.

Baker Mayfield checks in as one of the best QBs in the NFL at generating extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.06 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 92nd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are heavy underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their typical approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 37.0% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect Baker Mayfield to garner 3.6 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-fewest out of all QBs.

This year, the shaky Chiefs run defense has yielded a whopping 3.57 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 27th-worst rate in football.

When it comes to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Kansas City's unit has been great this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.

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