My Account Log Out

reorder

Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A rushing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a 3-point favorite this week.

The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).

Baker Mayfield has run for significantly more yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (10.0).

Baker Mayfield's running effectiveness has improved this season, notching 6.56 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.16 rate last season.

With an outstanding record of 2.66 yards-after-contact (95th percentile), Baker Mayfield has been among the top running QBs in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 7th-least run-centric team in football (38.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Buccaneers.

The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower run volume.

More Baker Mayfield Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™