Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line implies a running game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
At the moment, the 7th-quickest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Buccaneers.
The Commanders defense has produced the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing run games last year, giving up 4.69 adjusted yards-per-carry.
The Washington defensive tackles profile as the 5th-worst group of DTs in the league last year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 8th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (37.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Buccaneers.
With a very bad record of 4.2 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (11th percentile), Baker Mayfield rates as one of the worst running QBs in football last year.

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