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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

Taking on 14.3% of his team's run game usage this year (75th percentile among quarterbacks), Baker Mayfield's mobility makes him a serious threat in the run game.

Baker Mayfield has rushed for a lot more yards per game (16.0) this season than he did last season (7.0).

Baker Mayfield's 5.14 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year marks a meaningful improvement in his running ability over last year's 3.35 figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 38.5% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (just 56.7 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football last year at blocking for the run game.

This year, the poor Texans run defense has surrendered a colossal 3.57 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 30th-biggest rate in the NFL.

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