Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 27, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Baker Mayfield has run for significantly more yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (7.0).
Baker Mayfield's rushing efficiency has gotten better this year, notching 5.09 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.35 rate last year.
Baker Mayfield grades out as one of the leading quarterbacks in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an exceptional 3.04 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 81st percentile.
The Bills defense has had the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 5.22 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run on 38.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.3 per game on average).
When it comes to executing run-blocking assignments (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 5th-worst in the league last year.