Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.5 plays per game.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Baker Mayfield's ground efficiency (3.47 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (19th percentile when it comes to QBs).
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

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