Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 1:26 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 7th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 46.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to earn 4.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
Baker Mayfield has been a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this season (16.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (11.1%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 8th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Baker Mayfield's rushing efficiency (3.28 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (4th percentile among QBs).
The Chicago Bears safeties rank as the best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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