Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Baker Mayfield has run for quite a few more yards per game (13.0) this season than he did last season (7.0).
Baker Mayfield's running effectiveness has improved this year, totaling 4.41 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.35 figure last year.

Favors Under

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 39.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL last year in run-blocking.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's group of DTs has been great this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

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