Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.6% more towards the run game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach.
In this week's contest, Baker Mayfield is projected by the projections to notch the 8th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 3.9.
Baker Mayfield isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 13.9% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 77th percentile among QBs.
Baker Mayfield's 14.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year shows a significant progression in his rushing ability over last year's 7.0 figure.

Favors Under

The model projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league last year in run-blocking.

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