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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-108/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -121.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive scheme to tilt 4.3% more towards the rushing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.

Baker Mayfield has run for quite a few more yards per game (14.0) this year than he did last year (7.0).

Baker Mayfield's 4.38 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season indicates a material growth in his running ability over last season's 3.35 mark.

This year, the anemic Indianapolis Colts run defense has yielded a whopping 132.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 9th-worst in the league.

As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Indianapolis's safety corps has been terrible this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 6th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 38.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Opposing teams have played at the 10th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Buccaneers defense this year, averaging 28.03 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

When it comes to opening holes for runners (and the importance it has on all ground game stats), the O-line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL last year.

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