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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-108/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -121.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive scheme to tilt 4.3% more towards the rushing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
  • Baker Mayfield has run for quite a few more yards per game (14.0) this year than he did last year (7.0).
  • Baker Mayfield's 4.38 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season indicates a material growth in his running ability over last season's 3.35 mark.
  • This year, the anemic Indianapolis Colts run defense has yielded a whopping 132.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 9th-worst in the league.
  • As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Indianapolis's safety corps has been terrible this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

  • Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 6th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 38.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing teams have played at the 10th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Buccaneers defense this year, averaging 28.03 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • When it comes to opening holes for runners (and the importance it has on all ground game stats), the O-line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL last year.

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