Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

My Account Log Out

reorder

Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-114/-114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Baker Mayfield's 14.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year conveys a noteable gain in his running prowess over last year's 7.0 rate.
Baker Mayfield's running efficiency has gotten a boost this season, accumulating 4.48 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a mere 3.35 mark last season.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buccaneers to run on 37.0% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are anticipated by the projections to run just 60.0 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
When it comes to run-blocking (and the significance it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 5th-worst in football last year.
This year, the tough San Francisco 49ers run defense has yielded a paltry 80.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 4th-best in the league.

More Baker Mayfield Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow