Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.8% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
Baker Mayfield has rushed for substantially more yards per game (15.0) this season than he did last season (7.0).
Baker Mayfield's rushing efficiency has gotten better this season, accumulating 4.58 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to just 3.35 mark last season.
Baker Mayfield has been one of the best QBs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a fantastic 3.26 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 88th percentile.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends grade out as the 5th-worst group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.5 total plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 56.8 plays per game.
In regards to opening holes for runners (and the effect it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 5th-worst in football last year.

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