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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -129.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 10th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 39.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

Baker Mayfield's ground effectiveness (3.35 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (5th percentile among quarterbacks).

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