Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 63.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (10.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.4% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-most yards in the league (131 per game) vs. the New York Giants defense since the start of last season.
The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 6th-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Baker Mayfield has been among the bottom quarterbacks in the league at picking up extra running yardage, averaging just 1.26 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 18th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.