Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (12.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.2% in games he has played).
Baker Mayfield has been among the top QBs in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an impressive 2.62 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 81st percentile.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-most yards in football (153 per game) versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
The Seattle Seahawks defensive ends project as the 4th-worst group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams will be starting backup quarterback Baker Mayfield in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.3 plays per game.
Baker Mayfield has grinded out a measly 6.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest figures in the NFL among QBs (20th percentile).

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