Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+102/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (10.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.7% in games he has played).
Baker Mayfield has been among the best quarterbacks in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 2.62 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 83rd percentile.
The Denver Broncos defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams will be forced to start backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Rams are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The Rams rank as the 8th-least run-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 38.3% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.