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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+102/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (10.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.7% in games he has played).
  • Baker Mayfield has been among the best quarterbacks in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 2.62 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 83rd percentile.
  • The Denver Broncos defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
  • The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
  • The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Los Angeles Rams will be forced to start backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • The Rams are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
  • The Rams rank as the 8th-least run-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 38.3% run rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Los Angeles Rams have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.

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