Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (11.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (5.3% in games he has played).
Baker Mayfield has been among the top quarterbacks in the NFL at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 2.62 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 85th percentile.
Opposing teams have rushed for the most yards in football (151 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams will be forced to utilize backup QB Baker Mayfield this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 41.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.

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