My Account Log Out
 
 
Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (11.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (5.3% in games he has played).
  • Baker Mayfield has been among the top quarterbacks in the NFL at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 2.62 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 85th percentile.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the most yards in football (151 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
  • The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
  • The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Los Angeles Rams will be forced to utilize backup QB Baker Mayfield this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 41.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Los Angeles Rams have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2022 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™