Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 25.65 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (11.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.2% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles project as the 7th-worst collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
The Carolina Panthers have risked going for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to total 3.0 carries in this contest, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Baker Mayfield has been among the bottom quarterbacks in the NFL at generating extra running yardage, averaging just 1.43 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 21st percentile.
Opposing teams have run for the 10th-least yards in football (just 107 per game) vs. the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.