Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 15, 2024

Updated Dec 15, 2024 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 234.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (62.6% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buccaneers.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may suffer.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all air attack metrics across the board.
Baker Mayfield's 270.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year shows a noteworthy boost in his passing prowess over last year's 231.0 figure.
Baker Mayfield's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 63.6% to 69.6%.

Favors Under

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This year, the formidable Chargers defense has given up the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing offenses: a feeble 7.2 yards.
This year, the strong Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing offenses: a measly 4.4 YAC.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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