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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 242.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 238.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 242.5 @ -129.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

Baker Mayfield's 274.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year illustrates a substantial gain in his throwing prowess over last year's 231.0 figure.

Baker Mayfield's throwing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 63.6% to 71.4%.

Baker Mayfield's pass-game effectiveness has been refined this season, accumulating 8.05 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.94 figure last season.

This year, the anemic Panthers defense has conceded a whopping 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.8% of their plays: the 11th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the model to run just 63.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects Baker Mayfield to attempt 33.3 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 10th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

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