Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 27, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 230.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 228.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 230.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Buccaneers ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.
Baker Mayfield's 217.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year reflects a meaningful gain in his throwing talent over last year's 63.0 rate.
This year, the poor Bills defense has been gouged for a colossal 79.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.3 per game on average).
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
Baker Mayfield grades out as one of the worst per-play quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a lowly 6.39 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 22nd percentile.