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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 20

Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 270.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 264.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 270.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Baker Mayfield has thrown for a lot more adjusted yards per game (235.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
  • Baker Mayfield's passing efficiency has been refined this season, averaging 7.02 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 5.89 figure last season.
  • This year, the feeble Detroit Lions defense has conceded the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing squads: a monstrous 8.08 yards.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in football vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year (66.6% Adjusted Completion%).

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