Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 20, 2023

Updated Jan 21, 2024 7:51 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 270.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 264.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 270.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Baker Mayfield has thrown for a lot more adjusted yards per game (235.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
Baker Mayfield's passing efficiency has been refined this season, averaging 7.02 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 5.89 figure last season.
This year, the feeble Detroit Lions defense has conceded the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing squads: a monstrous 8.08 yards.

Favors Under

The model projects the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in football vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year (66.6% Adjusted Completion%).

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