Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 17, 2023

Updated Dec 31, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 236.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 228.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 236.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 132.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
Baker Mayfield's 234.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year reflects a substantial growth in his throwing ability over last year's 63.0 figure.
Baker Mayfield's 6.99 adjusted yards-per-target this year conveys a noteworthy improvement in his throwing efficiency over last year's 5.9% mark.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This year, the fierce New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered a feeble 204.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-fewest in football.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in football against the New Orleans Saints defense this year (63.0% Adjusted Completion%).
As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, New Orleans's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.

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