Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 3:57 AM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 244.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 242.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 244.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Buccaneers ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.
Baker Mayfield has passed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (226.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Titans defense this year (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, giving up 8.23 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tennessee's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in football.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.8% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.5 total plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 56.8 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Baker Mayfield to attempt 33.1 passes in this game, on balance: the 9th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

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